Extratropical cyclone damage to the seawall in Dawlish, UK: eyewitness accounts, sea level analysis and numerical modelling

영국 Dawlish의 방파제에 대한 온대 저기압 피해: 목격자 설명, 해수면 분석 및 수치 모델링

Extratropical cyclone damage to the seawall in Dawlish, UK: eyewitness accounts, sea level analysis and numerical modelling

Natural Hazards (2022)Cite this article

Abstract

2014년 2월 영국 해협(영국)과 특히 Dawlish에 영향을 미친 온대 저기압 폭풍 사슬은 남서부 지역과 영국의 나머지 지역을 연결하는 주요 철도에 심각한 피해를 입혔습니다.

이 사건으로 라인이 두 달 동안 폐쇄되어 5천만 파운드의 피해와 12억 파운드의 경제적 손실이 발생했습니다. 이 연구에서는 폭풍의 파괴력을 해독하기 위해 목격자 계정을 수집하고 해수면 데이터를 분석하며 수치 모델링을 수행합니다.

우리의 분석에 따르면 이벤트의 재난 관리는 성공적이고 효율적이었으며 폭풍 전과 도중에 인명과 재산을 구하기 위해 즉각적인 조치를 취했습니다. 파도 부이 분석에 따르면 주기가 4–8, 8–12 및 20–25초인 복잡한 삼중 봉우리 바다 상태가 존재하는 반면, 조위계 기록에 따르면 최대 0.8m의 상당한 파도와 최대 1.5m의 파도 성분이 나타났습니다.

이벤트에서 가능한 기여 요인으로 결합된 진폭. 최대 286 KN의 상당한 임펄스 파동이 손상의 시작 원인일 가능성이 가장 높았습니다. 수직 벽의 반사는 파동 진폭의 보강 간섭을 일으켜 파고가 증가하고 최대 16.1m3/s/m(벽의 미터 너비당)의 상당한 오버탑핑을 초래했습니다.

이 정보와 우리의 공학적 판단을 통해 우리는 이 사고 동안 다중 위험 계단식 실패의 가장 가능성 있는 순서는 다음과 같다고 결론을 내립니다. 조적 파괴로 이어지는 파도 충격력, 충전물 손실 및 연속적인 조수에 따른 구조물 파괴.

The February 2014 extratropical cyclonic storm chain, which impacted the English Channel (UK) and Dawlish in particular, caused significant damage to the main railway connecting the south-west region to the rest of the UK. The incident caused the line to be closed for two months, £50 million of damage and an estimated £1.2bn of economic loss. In this study, we collate eyewitness accounts, analyse sea level data and conduct numerical modelling in order to decipher the destructive forces of the storm. Our analysis reveals that the disaster management of the event was successful and efficient with immediate actions taken to save lives and property before and during the storm. Wave buoy analysis showed that a complex triple peak sea state with periods at 4–8, 8–12 and 20–25 s was present, while tide gauge records indicated that significant surge of up to 0.8 m and wave components of up to 1.5 m amplitude combined as likely contributing factors in the event. Significant impulsive wave force of up to 286 KN was the most likely initiating cause of the damage. Reflections off the vertical wall caused constructive interference of the wave amplitudes that led to increased wave height and significant overtopping of up to 16.1 m3/s/m (per metre width of wall). With this information and our engineering judgement, we conclude that the most probable sequence of multi-hazard cascading failure during this incident was: wave impact force leading to masonry failure, loss of infill and failure of the structure following successive tides.

Introduction

The progress of climate change and increasing sea levels has started to have wide ranging effects on critical engineering infrastructure (Shakou et al. 2019). The meteorological effects of increased atmospheric instability linked to warming seas mean we may be experiencing more frequent extreme storm events and more frequent series or chains of events, as well as an increase in the force of these events, a phenomenon called storminess (Mölter et al. 2016; Feser et al. 2014). Features of more extreme weather events in extratropical latitudes (30°–60°, north and south of the equator) include increased gusting winds, more frequent storm squalls, increased prolonged precipitation and rapid changes in atmospheric pressure and more frequent and significant storm surges (Dacre and Pinto 2020). A recent example of these events impacting the UK with simultaneous significant damage to coastal infrastructure was the extratropical cyclonic storm chain of winter 2013/2014 (Masselink et al. 2016; Adams and Heidarzadeh 2021). The cluster of storms had a profound effect on both coastal and inland infrastructure, bringing widespread flooding events and large insurance claims (RMS 2014).

The extreme storms of February 2014, which had a catastrophic effect on the seawall of the south Devon stretch of the UK’s south-west mainline, caused a two-month closure of the line and significant disruption to the local and regional economy (Fig. 1b) (Network Rail 2014; Dawson et al. 2016; Adams and Heidarzadeh 2021). Restoration costs were £35 m, and economic effects to the south-west region of England were estimated up to £1.2bn (Peninsula Rail Taskforce 2016). Adams and Heidarzadeh (2021) investigated the disparate cascading failure mechanisms which played a part in the failure of the railway through Dawlish and attempted to put these in the context of the historical records of infrastructure damage on the line. Subsequent severe storms in 2016 in the region have continued to cause damage and disruption to the line in the years since 2014 (Met Office 2016). Following the events of 2014, Network Rail Footnote1 who owns the network has undertaken a resilience study. As a result, it has proposed a £400 m refurbishment of the civil engineering assets that support the railway (Fig. 1) (Network Rail 2014). The new seawall structure (Fig. 1a,c), which is constructed of pre-cast concrete sections, encases the existing Brunel seawall (named after the project lead engineer, Isambard Kingdom Brunel) and has been improved with piled reinforced concrete foundations. It is now over 2 m taller to increase the available crest freeboard and incorporates wave return features to minimise wave overtopping. The project aims to increase both the resilience of the assets to extreme weather events as well as maintain or improve amenity value of the coastline for residents and visitors.

figure 1
Fig. 1

In this work, we return to the Brunel seawall and the damage it sustained during the 2014 storms which affected the assets on the evening of the 4th and daytime of the 5th of February and eventually resulted in a prolonged closure of the line. The motivation for this research is to analyse and model the damage made to the seawall and explain the damage mechanisms in order to improve the resilience of many similar coastal structures in the UK and worldwide. The innovation of this work is the multidisciplinary approach that we take comprising a combination of analysis of eyewitness accounts (social science), sea level and wave data analysis (physical science) as well as numerical modelling and engineering judgement (engineering sciences). We investigate the contemporary wave climate and sea levels by interrogating the real-time tide gauge and wave buoys installed along the south-west coast of the English Channel. We then model a typical masonry seawall (Fig. 2), applying the computational fluid dynamics package FLOW3D-Hydro,Footnote2 to quantify the magnitude of impact forces that the seawall would have experienced leading to its failure. We triangulate this information to determine the probable sequence of failures that led to the disaster in 2014.

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Fig. 2

Data and methods

Our data comprise eyewitness accounts, sea level records from coastal tide gauges and offshore wave buoys as well as structural details of the seawall. As for methodology, we analyse eyewitness data, process and investigate sea level records through Fourier transform and conduct numerical simulations using the Flow3D-Hydro package (Flow Science 2022). Details of the data and methodology are provided in the following.

Eyewitness data

The scale of damage to the seawall and its effects led the local community to document the first-hand accounts of those most closely affected by the storms including residents, local businesses, emergency responders, politicians and engineering contractors involved in the post-storm restoration work. These records now form a permanent exhibition in the local museum in DawlishFootnote3, and some of these accounts have been transcribed into a DVD account of the disaster (Dawlish Museum 2015). We have gathered data from the Dawlish Museum, national and international news reports, social media tweets and videos. Table 1 provides a summary of the eyewitness accounts. Overall, 26 entries have been collected around the time of the incident. Our analysis of the eyewitness data is provided in the third column of Table 1 and is expanded in Sect. 3.Table 1 Eyewitness accounts of damage to the Dawlish railway due to the February 2014 storm and our interpretations

Full size table

Sea level data and wave environment

Our sea level data are a collection of three tide gauge stations (Newlyn, Devonport and Swanage Pier—Fig. 5a) owned and operated by the UK National Tide and Sea Level FacilityFootnote4 for the Environment Agency and four offshore wave buoys (Dawlish, West Bay, Torbay and Chesil Beach—Fig. 6a). The tide gauge sites are all fitted with POL-EKO (www.pol-eko.com.pl) data loggers. Newlyn has a Munro float gauge with one full tide and one mid-tide pneumatic bubbler system. Devonport has a three-channel data pneumatic bubbler system, and Swanage Pier consists of a pneumatic gauge. Each has a sampling interval of 15 min, except for Swanage Pier which has a sampling interval of 10 min. The tide gauges are located within the port areas, whereas the offshore wave buoys are situated approximately 2—3.3 km from the coast at water depths of 10–15 m. The wave buoys are all Datawell Wavemaker Mk III unitsFootnote5 and come with sampling interval of 0.78 s. The buoys have a maximum saturation amplitude of 20.5 m for recording the incident waves which implies that every wave larger than this threshold will be recorded at 20.5 m. The data are provided by the British Oceanographic Data CentreFootnote6 for tide gauges and the Channel Coastal ObservatoryFootnote7 for wave buoys.

Sea level analysis

The sea level data underwent quality control to remove outliers and spikes as well as gaps in data (e.g. Heidarzadeh et al. 2022; Heidarzadeh and Satake 2015). We processed the time series of the sea level data using the Matlab signal processing tool (MathWorks 2018). For calculations of the tidal signals, we applied the tidal package TIDALFIT (Grinsted 2008), which is based on fitting tidal harmonics to the observed sea level data. To calculate the surge signals, we applied a 30-min moving average filter to the de-tided data in order to remove all wind, swell and infra-gravity waves from the time series. Based on the surge analysis and the variations of the surge component before the time period of the incident, an error margin of approximately ± 10 cm is identified for our surge analysis. Spectral analysis of the wave buoy data is performed using the fast Fourier transform (FFT) of Matlab package (Mathworks 2018).

Numerical modelling

Numerical modelling of wave-structure interaction is conducted using the computational fluid dynamics package Flow3D-Hydro version 1.1 (Flow Science 2022). Flow3D-Hydro solves the transient Navier–Stokes equations of conservation of mass and momentum using a finite difference method and on Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks (Flow Science 2022). The aforementioned governing equations are:

∇.u=0∇.u=0

(1)

∂u∂t+u.∇u=−∇Pρ+υ∇2u+g∂u∂t+u.∇u=−∇Pρ+υ∇2u+g

(2)

where uu is the velocity vector, PP is the pressure, ρρ is the water density, υυ is the kinematic viscosity and gg is the gravitational acceleration. A Fractional Area/Volume Obstacle Representation (FAVOR) is adapted in Flow3D-Hydro, which applies solid boundaries within the Eulerian grid and calculates the fraction of areas and volume in partially blocked volume in order to compute flows on corresponding boundaries (Hirt and Nichols 1981). We validated the numerical modelling through comparing the results with Sainflou’s analytical equation for the design of vertical seawalls (Sainflou 1928; Ackhurst 2020), which is as follows:

pd=ρgHcoshk(d+z)coshkdcosσtpd=ρgHcoshk(d+z)coshkdcosσt

(3)

where pdpd is the hydrodynamic pressure, ρρ is the water density, gg is the gravitational acceleration, HH is the wave height, dd is the water depth, kk is the wavenumber, zz is the difference in still water level and mean water level, σσ is the angular frequency and tt is the time. The Sainflou’s equation (Eq. 3) is used to calculate the dynamic pressure from wave action, which is combined with static pressure on the seawall.

Using Flow3D-Hydro, a model of the Dawlish seawall was made with a computational domain which is 250.0 m in length, 15.0 m in height and 0.375 m in width (Fig. 3a). The computational domain was discretised using a single uniform grid with a mesh size of 0.125 m. The model has a wave boundary at the left side of the domain (x-min), an outflow boundary on the right side (x-max), a symmetry boundary at the bottom (z-min) and a wall boundary at the top (z-max). A wall boundary implies that water or waves are unable to pass through the boundary, whereas a symmetry boundary means that the two edges of the boundary are identical and therefore there is no flow through it. The water is considered incompressible in our model. For volume of fluid advection for the wave boundary (i.e. the left-side boundary) in our simulations, we utilised the “Split Lagrangian Method”, which guarantees the best accuracy (Flow Science, 2022).

figure 3
Fig. 3

The stability of the numerical scheme is controlled and maintained through checking the Courant number (CC) as given in the following:

C=VΔtΔxC=VΔtΔx

(4)

where VV is the velocity of the flow, ΔtΔt is the time step and ΔxΔx is the spatial step (i.e. grid size). For stability and convergence of the numerical simulations, the Courant number must be sufficiently below one (Courant et al. 1928). This is maintained by a careful adjustment of the ΔxΔx and ΔtΔt selections. Flow3D-Hydro applies a dynamic Courant number, meaning the program adjusts the value of time step (ΔtΔt) during the simulations to achieve a balance between accuracy of results and speed of simulation. In our simulation, the time step was in the range ΔtΔt = 0.0051—0.051 s.

In order to achieve the most efficient mesh resolution, we varied cell size for five values of ΔxΔx = 0.1 m, 0.125 m, 0.15 m, 0.175 m and 0.20 m. Simulations were performed for all mesh sizes, and the results were compared in terms of convergence, stability and speed of simulation (Fig. 3). A linear wave with an amplitude of 1.5 m and a period of 6 s was used for these optimisation simulations. We considered wave time histories at two gauges A and B and recorded the waves from simulations using different mesh sizes (Fig. 3). Although the results are close (Fig. 3), some limited deviations are observed for larger mesh sizes of 0.20 m and 0.175 m. We therefore selected mesh size of 0.125 m as the optimum, giving an extra safety margin as a conservative solution.

The pressure from the incident waves on the vertical wall is validated in our model by comparing them with the analytical equation of Sainflou (1928), Eq. (3), which is one of the most common set of equations for design of coastal structures (Fig. 4). The model was tested by running a linear wave of period 6 s and wave amplitude of 1.5 m against the wall, with a still water level of 4.5 m. It can be seen that the model results are very close to those from analytical equations of Sainflou (1928), indicating that our numerical model is accurately modelling the wave-structure interaction (Fig. 4).

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Fig. 4

Eyewitness account analysis

Contemporary reporting of the 4th and 5th February 2014 storms by the main national news outlets in the UK highlights the extreme nature of the events and the significant damage and disruption they were likely to have on the communities of the south-west of England. In interviews, this was reinforced by Network Rail engineers who, even at this early stage, were forecasting remedial engineering works to last for at least 6 weeks. One week later, following subsequent storms the cascading nature of the events was obvious. Multiple breaches of the seawall had taken place with up to 35 separate landslide events and significant damage to parapet walls along the coastal route also were reported. Residents of the area reported extreme effects of the storm, one likening it to an earthquake and reporting water ingress through doors windows and even through vertical chimneys (Table 1). This suggests extreme wave overtopping volumes and large wave impact forces. One resident described the structural effects as: “the house was jumping up and down on its footings”.

Disaster management plans were quickly and effectively put into action by the local council, police service and National Rail. A major incident was declared, and decisions regarding evacuation of the residents under threat were taken around 2100 h on the night of 4th February when reports of initial damage to the seawall were received (Table 1). Local hotels were asked to provide short-term refuge to residents while local leisure facilities were prepared to accept residents later that evening. Initial repair work to the railway line was hampered by successive high spring tides and storms in the following days although significant progress was still made when weather conditions permitted (Table 1).

Sea level observations and spectral analysis

The results of surge and wave analyses are presented in Figs. 5 and 6. A surge height of up to 0.8 m was recorded in the examined tide gauge stations (Fig. 5b-d). Two main episodes of high surge heights are identified: the first surge started on 3rd February 2014 at 03:00 (UTC) and lasted until 4th of February 2014 at 00:00; the second event occurred in the period 4th February 2014 15:00 to 5th February 2014 at 17:00 (Fig. 5b-d). These data imply surge durations of 21 h and 26 h for the first and the second events, respectively. Based on the surge data in Fig. 5, we note that the storm event of early February 2014 and the associated surges was a relatively powerful one, which impacted at least 230 km of the south coast of England, from Land’s End to Weymouth, with large surge heights.

figure 5
Fig. 5
figure 6
Fig. 6

Based on wave buoy records, the maximum recorded amplitudes are at least 20.5 m in Dawlish and West Bay, 1.9 m in Tor Bay and 4.9 m in Chesil (Fig. 6a-b). The buoys at Tor Bay and Chesil recorded dual peak period bands of 4–8 and 8–12 s, whereas at Dawlish and West Bay registered triple peak period bands at 4–8, 8–12 and 20–25 s (Fig. 6c, d). It is important to note that the long-period waves at 20–25 s occur with short durations (approximately 2 min) while the waves at the other two bands of 4–8 and 8–12 s appear to be present at all times during the storm event.

The wave component at the period band of 4–8 s can be most likely attributed to normal coastal waves while the one at 8–12 s, which is longer, is most likely the swell component of the storm. Regarding the third component of the waves with long period of 20 -25 s, which occurs with short durations of 2 min, there are two hypotheses; it is either the result of a local (port and harbour) and regional (the Lyme Bay) oscillations (eg. Rabinovich 1997; Heidarzadeh and Satake 2014; Wang et al. 1992), or due to an abnormally long swell. To test the first hypothesis, we consider various water bodies such as Lyme Bay (approximate dimensions of 70 km × 20 km with an average water depth of 30 m; Fig. 6), several local bays (approximate dimensions of 3.6 km × 0.6 km with an average water depth of 6 m) and harbours (approximate dimensions of 0.5 km × 0.5 km with an average water depth of 4 m). Their water depths are based on the online Marine navigation website.Footnote8 According to Rabinovich (2010), the oscillation modes of a semi-enclosed rectangle basin are given by the following equation:

Tmn=2gd−−√[(m2L)2+(nW)2]−1/2Tmn=2gd[(m2L)2+(nW)2]−1/2

(5)

where TmnTmn is the oscillation period, gg is the gravitational acceleration, dd is the water depth, LL is the length of the basin, WW is the width of the basin, m=1,2,3,…m=1,2,3,… and n=0,1,2,3,…n=0,1,2,3,…; mm and nn are the counters of the different modes. Applying Eq. (5) to the aforementioned water bodies results in oscillation modes of at least 5 min, which is far longer than the observed period of 20–25 s. Therefore, we rule out the first hypothesis and infer that the long period of 20–25 s is most likely a long swell wave coming from distant sources. As discussed by Rabinovich (1997) and Wang et al. (2022), comparison between sea level spectra before and after the incident is a useful method to distinguish the spectrum of the weather event. A visual inspection of Fig. 6 reveals that the forcing at the period band of 20–25 s is non-existent before the incident.

Numerical simulations of wave loading and overtopping

Based on the results of sea level data analyses in the previous section (Fig. 6), we use a dual peak wave spectrum with peak periods of 10.0 s and 25.0 s for numerical simulations because such a wave would be comprised of the most energetic signals of the storm. For variations of water depth (2.0–4.0 m), coastal wave amplitude (0.5–1.5 m) (Fig. 7) and storm surge height (0.5–0.8 m) (Fig. 5), we developed 20 scenarios (Scn) which we used in numerical simulations (Table 2). Data during the incident indicated that water depth was up to the crest level of the seawall (approximately 4 m water depth); therefore, we varied water depth from 2 to 4 m in our simulation scenarios. Regarding wave amplitudes, we referred to the variations at a nearby tide gauge station (West Bay) which showed wave amplitude up to 1.2 m (Fig. 7). Therefore, wave amplitude was varied from 0.5 m to 1.5 m by considering a factor a safety of 25% for the maximum wave amplitude. As for the storm surge component, time series of storm surges calculated at three coastal stations adjacent to Dawlish showed that it was in the range of 0.5 m to 0.8 m (Fig. 5). These 20 scenarios would help to study uncertainties associated with wave amplitudes and pressures. Figure 8 shows snapshots of wave propagation and impacts on the seawall at different times.

figure 7
Fig. 7

Table 2 The 20 scenarios considered for numerical simulations in this study

Full size table

figure 8
Fig. 8

Results of wave amplitude simulations

Large wave amplitudes can induce significant wave forcing on the structure and cause overtopping of the seawall, which could eventually cascade to other hazards such as erosion of the backfill and scour (Adams and Heidarzadeh, 2021). The first 10 scenarios of our modelling efforts are for the same incident wave amplitudes of 0.5 m, which occur at different water depths (2.0–4.0 m) and storm surge heights (0.5–0.8 m) (Table 2 and Fig. 9). This is because we aim at studying the impacts of effective water depth (deff—the sum of mean sea level and surge height) on the time histories of wave amplitudes as the storm evolves. As seen in Fig. 9a, by decreasing effective water depth, wave amplitude increases. For example, for Scn-1 with effective depth of 4.5 m, the maximum amplitude of the first wave is 1.6 m, whereas it is 2.9 m for Scn-2 with effective depth of 3.5 m. However, due to intensive reflections and interferences of the waves in front of the vertical seawall, such a relationship is barely seen for the second and the third wave peaks. It is important to note that the later peaks (second or third) produce the largest waves rather than the first wave. Extraordinary wave amplifications are seen for the Scn-2 (deff = 3.5 m) and Scn-7 (deff = 3.3 m), where the corresponding wave amplitudes are 4.5 m and 3.7 m, respectively. This may indicate that the effective water depth of deff = 3.3–3.5 m is possibly a critical water depth for this structure resulting in maximum wave amplitudes under similar storms. In the second wave impact, the combined wave height (i.e. the wave amplitude plus the effective water depth), which is ultimately an indicator of wave overtopping, shows that the largest wave heights are generated by Scn-2, 7 and 8 (Fig. 9a) with effective water depths of 3.5 m, 3.3 m and 3.8 m and combined heights of 8.0 m, 7.0 m and 6.9 m (Fig. 9b). Since the height of seawall is 5.4 m, the combined wave heights for Scn-2, 7 and 8 are greater than the crest height of the seawall by 2.6 m, 1.6 m and 1.5 m, respectively, which indicates wave overtopping.

figure 9
Fig. 9

For scenarios 11–20 (Fig. 10), with incident wave amplitudes of 1.5 m (Table 2), the largest wave amplitudes are produced by Scn-17 (deff = 3.3 m), Scn-13 (deff = 2.5 m) and Scn-12 (deff = 3.5 m), which are 5.6 m, 5.1 m and 4.5 m. The maximum combined wave heights belong to Scn-11 (deff = 4.5 m) and Scn-17 (deff = 3.3 m), with combined wave heights of 9.0 m and 8.9 m (Fig. 10b), which are greater than the crest height of the seawall by 4.6 m and 3.5 m, respectively.

figure 10
Fig. 10

Our simulations for all 20 scenarios reveal that the first wave is not always the largest and wave interactions, reflections and interferences play major roles in amplifying the waves in front of the seawall. This is primarily because the wall is fully vertical and therefore has a reflection coefficient of close to one (i.e. full reflection). Simulations show that the combined wave height is up to 4.6 m higher than the crest height of the wall, implying that severe overtopping would be expected.

Results of wave loading calculations

The pressure calculations for scenarios 1–10 are given in Fig. 11 and those of scenarios 11–20 in Fig. 12. The total pressure distribution in Figs. 1112 mostly follows a triangular shape with maximum pressure at the seafloor as expected from the Sainflou (1928) design equations. These pressure plots comprise both static (due to mean sea level in front of the wall) and dynamic (combined effects of surge and wave) pressures. For incident wave amplitudes of 0.5 m (Fig. 11), the maximum wave pressure varies in the range of 35–63 kPa. At the sea surface, it is in the range of 4–20 kPa (Fig. 11). For some scenarios (Scn-2 and 7), the pressure distribution deviates from a triangular shape and shows larger pressures at the top, which is attributed to the wave impacts and partial breaking at the sea surface. This adds an additional triangle-shaped pressure distribution at the sea surface elevation consistent with the design procedure developed by Goda (2000) for braking waves. The maximum force on the seawall due to scenarios 1–10, which is calculated by integrating the maximum pressure distribution over the wave-facing surface of the seawall, is in the range of 92–190 KN (Table 2).

figure 11
Fig. 11
figure 12
Fig. 12

For scenarios 11–20, with incident wave amplitude of 1.5 m, wave pressures of 45–78 kPa and 7–120 kPa, for  the bottom and top of the wall, respectively, were observed (Fig. 12). Most of the plots show a triangular pressure distribution, except for Scn-11 and 15. A significant increase in wave impact pressure is seen for Scn-15 at the top of the structure, where a maximum pressure of approximately 120 kPa is produced while other scenarios give a pressure of 7–32 kPa for the sea surface. In other words, the pressure from Scn-15 is approximately four times larger than the other scenarios. Such a significant increase of the pressure at the top is most likely attributed to the breaking wave impact loads as detailed by Goda (2000) and Cuomo et al. (2010). The wave simulation snapshots in Fig. 8 show that the wave breaks before reaching the wall. The maximum force due to scenarios 11–20 is 120–286 KN.

The breaking wave impacts peaking at 286 KN in our simulations suggest destabilisation of the upper masonry blocks, probably by grout malfunction. This significant impact force initiated the failure of the seawall which in turn caused extensive ballast erosion. Wave impact damage was proposed by Adams and Heidarzadeh (2021) as one of the primary mechanisms in the 2014 Dawlish disaster. In the multi-hazard risk model proposed by these authors, damage mechanism III (failure pathway 5 in Adams and Heidarzadeh, 2021) was characterised by wave impact force causing damage to the masonry elements, leading to failure of the upper sections of the seawall and loss of infill material. As blocks were removed, access to the track bed was increased for inbound waves allowing infill material from behind the seawall to be fluidised and subsequently removed by backwash. The loss of infill material critically compromised the stability of the seawall and directly led to structural failure. In parallel, significant wave overtopping (discussed in the next section) led to ballast washout and cascaded, in combination with masonry damage, to catastrophic failure of the wall and suspension of the rails in mid-air (Fig. 1b), leaving the railway inoperable for two months.

Wave Overtopping

The two most important factors contributing to the 2014 Dawlish railway catastrophe were wave impact forces and overtopping. Figure 13 gives the instantaneous overtopping rates for different scenarios, which experienced overtopping. It can be seen that the overtopping rates range from 0.5 m3/s/m to 16.1 m3/s/m (Fig. 13). Time histories of the wave overtopping rates show that the phenomenon occurs intermittently, and each time lasts 1.0–7.0 s. It is clear that the longer the overtopping time, the larger the volume of the water poured on the structure. The largest wave overtopping rates of 16.1 m3/s/m and 14.4 m3/s/m belong to Scn-20 and 11, respectively. These are the two scenarios that also give the largest combined wave heights (Fig. 10b).

figure 13
Fig. 13

The cumulative overtopping curves (Figs. 1415) show the total water volume overtopped the structure during the entire simulation time. This is an important hazard factor as it determines the level of soil saturation, water pore pressure in the soil and soil erosion (Van der Meer et al. 2018). The maximum volume belongs to Scn-20, which is 65.0 m3/m (m-cubed of water per metre length of the wall). The overtopping volumes are 42.7 m3/m for Scn-11 and 28.8 m3/m for Scn-19. The overtopping volume is in the range of 0.7–65.0 m3/m for all scenarios.

figure 14
Fig. 14
figure 15
Fig. 15

For comparison, we compare our modelling results with those estimated using empirical equations. For the case of the Dawlish seawall, we apply the equation proposed by Van Der Meer et al. (2018) to estimate wave overtopping rates, based on a set of decision criteria which are the influence of foreshore, vertical wall, possible breaking waves and low freeboard:

qgH3m−−−−√=0.0155(Hmhs)12e(−2.2RcHm)qgHm3=0.0155(Hmhs)12e(−2.2RcHm)

(6)

where qq is the mean overtopping rate per metre length of the seawall (m3/s/m), gg is the acceleration due to gravity, HmHm is the incident wave height at the toe of the structure, RcRc is the wall crest height above mean sea level, hshs is the deep-water significant wave height and e(x)e(x) is the exponential function. It is noted that Eq. (6) is valid for 0.1<RcHm<1.350.1<RcHm<1.35. For the case of the Dawlish seawall and considering the scenarios with larger incident wave amplitude of 1.5 m (hshs= 1.5 m), the incident wave height at the toe of the structure is HmHm = 2.2—5.6 m, and the wall crest height above mean sea level is RcRc = 0.6–2.9 m. As a result, Eq. (6) gives mean overtopping rates up to approximately 2.9 m3/s/m. A visual inspection of simulated overtopping rates in Fig. 13 for Scn 11–20 shows that the mean value of the simulated overtopping rates (Fig. 13) is close to estimates using Eq. (6).

Discussion and conclusions

We applied a combination of eyewitness account analysis, sea level data analysis and numerical modelling in combination with our engineering judgement to explain the damage to the Dawlish railway seawall in February 2014. Main findings are:

  • Eyewitness data analysis showed that the extreme nature of the event was well forecasted in the hours prior to the storm impact; however, the magnitude of the risks to the structures was not well understood. Multiple hazards were activated simultaneously, and the effects cascaded to amplify the damage. Disaster management was effective, exemplified by the establishment of an emergency rendezvous point and temporary evacuation centre during the storm, indicating a high level of hazard awareness and preparedness.
  • Based on sea level data analysis, we identified triple peak period bands at 4–8, 8–12 and 20–25 s in the sea level data. Storm surge heights and wave oscillations were up to 0.8 m and 1.5 m, respectively.
  • Based on the numerical simulations of 20 scenarios with different water depths, incident wave amplitudes, surge heights and peak periods, we found that the wave oscillations at the foot of the seawall result in multiple wave interactions and interferences. Consequently, large wave amplitudes, up to 4.6 m higher than the height of the seawall, were generated and overtopped the wall. Extreme impulsive wave impact forces of up to 286 KN were generated by the waves interacting with the seawall.
  • We measured maximum wave overtopping rates of 0.5–16.1 m3/s/m for our scenarios. The cumulative overtopping water volumes per metre length of the wall were 0.7–65.0 m3/m.
  • Analysis of all the evidence combined with our engineering judgement suggests that the most likely initiating cause of the failure was impulsive wave impact forces destabilising one or more grouted joints between adjacent masonry blocks in the wall. Maximum observed pressures of 286 KN in our simulations are four times greater in magnitude than background pressures leading to block removal and initiating failure. Therefore, the sequence of cascading events was :1) impulsive wave impact force causing damage to masonry, 2) failure of the upper sections of the seawall, 3) loss of infill resulting in a reduction of structural strength in the landward direction, 4) ballast washout as wave overtopping and inbound wave activity increased and 5) progressive structural failure following successive tides.

From a risk mitigation point of view, the stability of the seawall in the face of future energetic cyclonic storm events and sea level rise will become a critical factor in protecting the rail network. Mitigation efforts will involve significant infrastructure investment to strengthen the civil engineering assets combined with improved hazard warning systems consisting of meteorological forecasting and real-time wave observations and instrumentation. These efforts must take into account the amenity value of coastal railway infrastructure to local communities and the significant number of tourists who visit every year. In this regard, public awareness and active engagement in the planning and execution of the project will be crucial in order to secure local stakeholder support for the significant infrastructure project that will be required for future resilience.

Notes

  1. https://www.networkrail.co.uk/..
  2. https://www.flow3d.com/products/flow-3d-hydro/.
  3. https://www.devonmuseums.net/Dawlish-Museum/Devon-Museums/.
  4. https://ntslf.org/.
  5. https://www.datawell.nl/Products/Buoys/DirectionalWaveriderMkIII.aspx.
  6. https://www.bodc.ac.uk/.
  7. https://coastalmonitoring.org/cco/.
  8. https://webapp.navionics.com/#boating@8&key=iactHlwfP.

References

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Brunel University London for administering the scholarship awarded to KA. The Flow3D-Hydro used in this research for numerical modelling is licenced to Brunel University London through an academic programme contract. We sincerely thank Prof Harsh Gupta (Editor-in-Chief) and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive review comments.

Funding

This project was funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) through a PhD scholarship to Keith Adams.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Brunel University London, Uxbridge, UB8 3PH, UKKeith Adams
  2. Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, UKMohammad Heidarzadeh

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Keith Adams.

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Adams, K., Heidarzadeh, M. Extratropical cyclone damage to the seawall in Dawlish, UK: eyewitness accounts, sea level analysis and numerical modelling. Nat Hazards (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05692-2

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  • Received17 May 2022
  • Accepted17 October 2022
  • Published14 November 2022
  • DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05692-2

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Keywords

  • Storm surge
  • Cyclone
  • Railway
  • Climate change
  • Infrastructure
  • Resilience
FLOW-3D skimming upstream view

계단식 여수로의 흐름 시뮬레이션

FLOW-3D 는 매끄러운 여수로에서 유량 매개 변수를 결정하는데 널리 사용됩니다. 일반적으로 여수로에서 에너지 손실을 찾는 것이 목적인데, 이는 stilling basins 및 other energy dissipaters 를 설계하는 데 사용됩니다.

계단식 여수로에서 에너지 손실을 계산하기 위해 FLOW-3D 를 사용하는 것에 대한 관심이 증가하고 있습니다. 계단식 여수로 모델링 프로세스는 다음 지침에 따라 도움이 될 수 있습니다.

igure 1. Typical geometric representation of a smooth and a stepped spillway.
igure 1. Typical geometric representation of a smooth and a stepped spillway.

소개

계단식 여수로의 흐름은 네 가지 일반 범주로 나뉩니다. 낮잠 흐름, 과도 흐름, 비 공기 스키밍 흐름 및 폭기 스키밍 흐름. 다음 팁은 경사면에서 최대 45도까지 환기되지 않는 계단식 여수로의 Nappe 흐름, 과도기 흐름 및 비 통기성 skimming flow Model에서 개발되었습니다. 추가 비 통기성 skimming 결과는 Bombardelli et al 에서 찾을 수 있습니다. (2010, FloSci-Bib33-10)  및 Meireles et al (2010, FloSci-Bib61-10), 폭기 스키밍 흐름 모델 결과는  Sarfaraz 및 Attari (2011, FloSci-Bib34-11)에서 확인할 수 있습니다.

FLOW-3D skimming upstream view
FLOW-3D skimming upstream view
FLOW-3D skimming downstream view
FLOW-3D skimming downstream view

2 차원으로 시작하고 VOF 방법 선택

지오메트리 또는 흐름에 3D 불일치가없는 한(일반적으로 사실임) 여수로 시뮬레이션을 먼저 2D 사례로 실행합니다. 에너지 손실에 대한 결과는 2D에서 3D로 크게 변하지 않습니다. 이것은 메쉬 크기를 상당히 절약하고 훨씬 더 빠른 시뮬레이션 실행을 가능하게 합니다. 

스키밍 및 전환 흐름의 경우 기본 VOF (Volume-of-Fluid-Advection) 방법이 적절해 보입니다 (IFVOF = 4). Nappe 흐름의 경우 분할 Lagrangian VOF 방법 (IFVOF = 6)을 사용하여 제트 곡률을 해결하는 것이 좋습니다. 흐름 체제가 미리 알려지지 않은 경우 Split Lagrangian 방법을 사용합니다.

메시 해상도

계단식 여수로 Weir 흐름은 상류 속도와 여수로의 형상에 따라 다른 영역을 나타냅니다. 이러한 서로 다른 정권을 스키밍, 과도기 및 Nappe 흐름이라고합니다. 흐름 영역을 정확하게 예측하려면 메쉬 셀이 흐름 매개 변수를 캡처할 수 있을만큼 충분히 작은지 확인해야 합니다. 

스키밍 및 과도적 흐름의 경우 상대적으로 낮은 해상도가 허용될 수 있습니다. 계단의 가장 짧은 길이 / 높이를 분석하기 위한 4 ~ 5 개의 셀이 여러 테스트를 기반으로 충분 해 보이지만 여수로 경사가 45도 이상 더 클 때 메시가 상당히 미세해야 합니다. 에너지 손실 계산을 크게 향상시키는 추가 해상도는 발견되지 않았습니다. 반면에 Nappe 흐름은 떨어지는 제트를 해결하기 위해 매우 미세한 메쉬가 필요합니다.

Design of a Sewer Transition

Design of a Sewer Transition | 하수도 전환 설계

This article was contributed by Daniel Valero, Rafael García-Bartual, Ignacio Andrés and Francisco Valles of the Polytechnic University of Valencia.

2010 년 12 월, 새로운 고속 열차 MADRID-VALENCIA (스페인)가 개통되었습니다. 건설 전에 극복해야 할 많은 기술적 문제 중 하나는 터널로 구성된 도심의 철도 입구로 발렌시아의 주요 남쪽 하수도를 벗어나게 했습니다. 이탈 도달 범위는 길이가 143 미터이며 아래에 자세히 설명된 복잡한 유압 설계를 포함하여 기존 경사와 관련하여 경사 및 단면의 중요한 변경을 포함합니다. 유압 성능은 FLOW-3D를 사용한 수치 시뮬레이션과   발렌시아 폴리 테크닉 대학교의 유압 실험실에서 물리적 모델을 통해 확인되었습니다. 최대 용량 100 m 3 / s에 대한 테스트가 수행되었습니다 .

The Sewer                          

그림 1은 하수도 기하학 설계의 주요 특징을 보여줍니다. 여기에는 철도 터널을 건넌 직후에 위치한 표준 WES 프로파일이 포함됩니다. 이 위어는 높은 유속으로 초 임계 흐름을 강제합니다. 하류에서 바람직하지 않은 흐름 조건이 설정되는 것을 방지하기 위해 둑 바로 하류에 정류 조를 설계했습니다. 이러한 장치는 연결 하류 하수도에서 높은 에너지 손실 및 임계 이하의 흐름 조건을 수반하는 유압 점프를 강제합니다. 서로 다른 배출 조건에서 흐름의 거동을 보장하기 위해 채널에 두 개의 세로 줄의 삼각형 블록이 포함되었으며, 이는 정수 조 길이에서 유압 점프를 국지화하기 위해 에너지 소산 기 역할을했습니다. 그 계단의 길이에서 수압 점프. 새로운 변형 채널과 기존 도달 지점(upstream and downstream)사이는 기하학적 요소로 부드럽게 연결합니다.(그림 2).

Figure 1. Geometry of the sewer

Figure 2. Reach 2 of the sewer

FLOW-3D Simulations

문제의 정확한 해결을 위해 계산 리소스를 최적화하기 위해 하수도를 여러 개의 중첩 된 범위로 분할하여 수력 솔루션의 연속성을 보장하고 고려 된 각 도달 범위에서 더 미세한 메시를 사용할 수 있습니다. 가장 복잡한 흐름이 정수 조에서 발생하기 때문에 이러한 도달 범위는 윤곽선과 바닥 블록에서 중앙 흐름 영역까지 점진적으로 다양한 셀 크기로 가장 높은 해상도 (6.000.000 셀)로 해결되었습니다. 유압 점프 시뮬레이션에 대한 비디오는 이 기사의 끝에 있습니다.

Figure 3. Velocity magnitude distribution

Figure 4. Turbulent kinetic energy distribution.

Figure 5. Air entrained prediction with turbulent air entrainment model

ke RNG 난류 모델이 선택되었으며, 이류에 대한 명시적인 2 차 단 조성 보존 체계가 있습니다. 자유 표면 표현에는 Split Lagrangian 방법이 사용되었습니다. 정상 상태 솔루션 이전의 과도 흐름은 더 거친 메쉬로 시뮬레이션되었습니다. 그림 3과 4는 수치 시뮬레이션의 관련 결과를 보여줍니다. 또한 수력 점프의 수치 시뮬레이션을 보여주는 비디오 가이드 기술 노트에 첨부되어 있습니다.

유압 점프에서 발생하는 공기 혼입, 특히 난류와 자유 표면 간의 상호 작용을 설명하기 위해 추가 시뮬레이션이 수행되었습니다. 그림 5는 가변 밀도 옵션을 선택하고 기본 계수 C air  = 0.5를 사용하는 FLOW-3D 의 공기 혼입 모델을 사용한 결과를 보여줍니다.

Comparison with the Physical Model

발렌시아 Polytechnic University의 수압 실험실에 실물 모형을 구축하였습니다. 모형에 사용된 척도는 1/20이었습니다. 그림 6은 weir 상단 바로 위에 있는 임계 단면의 프로파일을 보여 줍니다. 발견된 평균 깊이의 오차는 1.3% 였습니다. 유동의 다른 구조적 특성은 FLOW-3D에 의해 적절하게 재현되었다. 예를 들어, 예를 들어, 하수도가 만곡된 범위에 따른 자유 표면의 형상과 Weir의 상류로의 흐르는 자유 표면의 현상입니다.

Figure 6. Relative error at the critical section. Comparison between FLOW-3D, physical model, and HEC-RAS (US Army Corps of Engineers).

Conclusions

실험실 결과와 FLOW-3D시뮬레이션 간의 약간의 차이가 확인되지만 연구 결과는 매우 만족스럽습니다. 아래 동영상을 통해 실험 및 수치해석 결과를 비교해 보시길 바랍니다.

FLOW-3D는 가능한 많은 형상 또는 유압 설계를 테스트할 때 실험실의 실험 횟수를 줄일 수 있습니다. 또한 FLOW-3D의 파일이 속도, 와도, 난류 등과 같은 관련 분야의 상세한 시공간 분포를 제공하므로 최종 설계와 관련하여 실험실에서 수행 된 결과와 측정을 확장하는 데 도움이 될 수 있습니다. 결합된 기술은 연구에서 언급한 것과 같은 유압 기반시설의 설계, 검증 및 최적화를 위한 강력한 도구입니다.